Postmatch editorial

The script held and Guinea delivered it

The final score was Somalia 0-3 Guinea. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Ousmane Camara scored 90+6' for Guinea.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Guinea led Shots on target 3-6. Guinea also shaded Total shots 5-11.

Before kickoff, our model made Guinea the likeliest result at 65.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guinea at 82.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.25 against a fair line of 1.24. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Guinea

65.3%

Hit

Market result

Guinea

82.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

56.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Guinea

Somalia

Guinea

3

6

Total shots

Guinea

Somalia

Guinea

5

11

Corners

Guinea

Somalia

Guinea

2

9

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

1.25

Fair odd

1.24

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.04u

That ticket matched the final outcome.