Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Solomon Islands

The final score was Solomon Islands 3-1 Tahiti. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Raphael Lea'i scored 90+5' for Solomon Islands.

Before kickoff, our model made Tahiti the likeliest result at 41.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tahiti at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (72.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Pncl. The market was offering 2.53 against a fair line of 2.42. That translated to an edge of 4.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Tahiti

41.7%

Miss

Market result

Tahiti

44.4%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

72.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

No reliable match statistics were returned for this game.

Model edge

2

Pncl

Market odd

2.53

Fair odd

2.42

Edge

4.5%

Stake

0.75u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.