Postmatch editorial

Draw settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Neither Slovenia nor Switzerland found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Switzerland led Shots on target 0-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Switzerland also shaded Total shots 4-11.

Before kickoff, our model made Switzerland the likeliest result at 45.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Switzerland at 55.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.90 against a fair line of 1.84. That translated to an edge of 3.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Switzerland

45.0%

Miss

Market result

Switzerland

55.6%

Miss

BTTS

No

53.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Switzerland

Slovenia

Switzerland

0

3

Total shots

Switzerland

Slovenia

Switzerland

4

11

Possession

Switzerland

Slovenia

Switzerland

35%

65%

Model edge

2

Interwetten

Market odd

1.90

Fair odd

1.84

Edge

3.3%

Stake

0.95u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.