Postmatch editorial

Neither side managed to pull the match clear

The final score was Slovenia 2-2 Sweden. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Zan Vipotnik 90', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Slovenia led Shots on target 4-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Sweden also shaded Corners 1-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Sweden the likeliest result at 45.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sweden at 45.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 2.22 against a fair line of 2.13. That translated to an edge of 4.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Sweden

45.3%

Miss

Market result

Sweden

45.9%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

54.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Slovenia

Slovenia

Sweden

4

2

Corners

Sweden

Slovenia

Sweden

1

4

Total shots

Slovenia

Slovenia

Sweden

9

6

Model edge

2

Betsson

Market odd

2.22

Fair odd

2.13

Edge

4.2%

Stake

0.81u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.