Postmatch editorial

Kosovo bent the night away from the script

The final score was Slovenia 0-2 Kosovo. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Fisnik Asllani put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Kosovo led Shots on target 2-7. Kosovo also shaded Total shots 6-15.

Before kickoff, our model made Slovenia the likeliest result at 42.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Slovenia at 41.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 3.90 against a fair line of 3.64. That translated to an edge of 7.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Slovenia

42.4%

Miss

Market result

Slovenia

41.7%

Miss

BTTS

No

55.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Kosovo

Slovenia

Kosovo

2

7

Total shots

Kosovo

Slovenia

Kosovo

6

15

Corners

Kosovo

Slovenia

Kosovo

4

7

Model edge

2

Betfair

Market odd

3.90

Fair odd

3.64

Edge

7.1%

Stake

0.51u

That ticket matched the final outcome.