Postmatch editorial

Kosovo bent the night away from the script

The final score was Slovakia 3-4 Kosovo. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Slovakia struck first through Martin Valjent 6', but Kosovo recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Slovakia led Total shots 20-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Slovakia also shaded Shots on target 8-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Slovakia the likeliest result at 46.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Slovakia at 42.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 888sport. The market was offering 3.90 against a fair line of 3.64. That translated to an edge of 7.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Slovakia

46.1%

Miss

Market result

Slovakia

42.0%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

52.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Slovakia

Slovakia

Kosovo

20

9

Shots on target

Slovakia

Slovakia

Kosovo

8

5

Corners

Slovakia

Slovakia

Kosovo

7

3

Model edge

2

888sport

Market odd

3.90

Fair odd

3.64

Edge

7.1%

Stake

0.51u

That ticket matched the final outcome.