Slovakia
Slovakia won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Germany
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Slovakia 2-0 Germany. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Dávid Hancko put the first mark on the match 42', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Germany led Possession 30%-70%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Germany also shaded Total shots 8-14.
Before kickoff, our model made Germany the likeliest result at 43.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Germany at 70.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Germany
43.6%
Market result
Germany
70.2%
BTTS
No
51.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
GermanySlovakia
Germany
30%
70%
Total shots
GermanySlovakia
Germany
8
14
Corners
GermanySlovakia
Germany
5
8
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.