Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
Guinea-Bissau
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Sierra Leone
The final score was Sierra Leone 3-1 Guinea-Bissau. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Ibrahim Turay scored 90+6' for Sierra Leone.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Sierra Leone led Shots on target 5-3. Sierra Leone also shaded Possession 66%-34%.
Before kickoff, our model made Sierra Leone the likeliest result at 39.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guinea-Bissau at 43.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.3%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 888sport. The market was offering 4.00 against a fair line of 3.73. That translated to an edge of 7.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Sierra Leone
39.3%
Market result
Guinea-Bissau
43.3%
BTTS
No
52.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Sierra LeoneSierra Leone
Guinea-Bissau
5
3
Possession
Sierra LeoneSierra Leone
Guinea-Bissau
66%
34%
Corners
Guinea-BissauSierra Leone
Guinea-Bissau
2
4
Model edge
1
888sport
Market odd
4.00
Fair odd
3.73
Edge
7.2%
Stake
0.50u
That ticket matched the final outcome.