Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Ethiopia
Postmatch editorial
Sierra Leone turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Sierra Leone 2-0 Ethiopia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Alhassan Koroma scored 90+6' for Sierra Leone.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Sierra Leone led Total shots 7-2. Sierra Leone also shaded Possession 65%-35%.
Before kickoff, our model made Sierra Leone the likeliest result at 47.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sierra Leone at 51.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.6%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathon. The market was offering 2.38 against a fair line of 2.28. That translated to an edge of 4.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Sierra Leone
47.6%
Market result
Sierra Leone
51.8%
BTTS
No
53.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Sierra LeoneSierra Leone
Ethiopia
7
2
Possession
Sierra LeoneSierra Leone
Ethiopia
65%
35%
Corners
Sierra LeoneSierra Leone
Ethiopia
4
2
Model edge
1
Marathon
Market odd
2.38
Fair odd
2.28
Edge
4.4%
Stake
0.76u
That ticket matched the final outcome.