Postmatch editorial

The script held and Burkina Faso delivered it

The final score was Sierra Leone 0-1 Burkina Faso. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Mohamed Zougrana put the first mark on the match 42', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Sierra Leone led Corners 10-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Sierra Leone also shaded Possession 53%-47%.

Before kickoff, our model made Burkina Faso the likeliest result at 45.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Burkina Faso at 53.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 5.50 against a fair line of 5.05. That translated to an edge of 8.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Burkina Faso

45.0%

Hit

Market result

Burkina Faso

53.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

51.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone

Burkina Faso

10

4

Possession

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone

Burkina Faso

53%

47%

Shots on target

Sierra Leone

Burkina Faso

5

5

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

5.50

Fair odd

5.05

Edge

8.9%

Stake

0.41u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.