Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Celta de Vigo
The final score was Sevilla 0-1 Celta de Vigo. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Marcos Alonso scored 88' for Celta de Vigo.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Celta de Vigo led Shots on target 2-7. Sevilla also shaded Corners 6-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Celta de Vigo the likeliest result at 42.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sevilla at 37.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.6%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.88 against a fair line of 2.73. That translated to an edge of 5.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Celta de Vigo
42.4%
Market result
Sevilla
37.1%
BTTS
Yes
51.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Celta de VigoSevilla
Celta de Vigo
2
7
Corners
SevillaSevilla
Celta de Vigo
6
1
Possession
SevillaSevilla
Celta de Vigo
59%
41%
Model edge
1
Mansionbet
Market odd
2.88
Fair odd
2.73
Edge
5.5%
Stake
0.64u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.