Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Sevilla

The final score was Sevilla 2-1 Atlético de Madrid. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Akor Adams put the first mark on the match 10', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Atlético de Madrid led Possession 32%-68%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Atlético de Madrid also shaded Total shots 11-13.

Before kickoff, our model made Atlético de Madrid the likeliest result at 49.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sevilla at 45.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.4%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 3.10 against a fair line of 2.93. That translated to an edge of 5.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Atlético de Madrid

49.3%

Miss

Market result

Sevilla

45.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

54.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Atlético de Madrid

Sevilla

Atlético de Madrid

32%

68%

Total shots

Atlético de Madrid

Sevilla

Atlético de Madrid

11

13

Shots on target

Sevilla

Atlético de Madrid

2

2

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

3.10

Fair odd

2.93

Edge

5.8%

Stake

0.71u

That ticket matched the final outcome.