Postmatch editorial

The script held and Serbia delivered it

The final score was Serbia 2-1 Latvia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Latvia struck first through Vladislavs Gutkovskis 12', but Serbia recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Serbia led Total shots 19-6. Serbia also shaded Corners 13-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Serbia the likeliest result at 57.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Serbia at 88.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (66.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathon. The market was offering 1.23 against a fair line of 1.22. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Serbia

57.5%

Hit

Market result

Serbia

88.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

66.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Serbia

Serbia

Latvia

19

6

Corners

Serbia

Serbia

Latvia

13

3

Shots on target

Serbia

Serbia

Latvia

7

4

Model edge

1

Marathon

Market odd

1.23

Fair odd

1.22

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.27u

That ticket matched the final outcome.