Postmatch editorial

Serbia turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Serbia 3-0 Andorra. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Aleksandar Mitrović put the first mark on the match 12', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Serbia led Shots on target 7-0. Serbia also shaded Total shots 20-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Serbia the likeliest result at 75.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Serbia at 95.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (73.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.51 against a fair line of 1.48. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Serbia

75.3%

Hit

Market result

Serbia

95.2%

Hit

BTTS

No

73.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Serbia

Serbia

Andorra

7

0

Total shots

Serbia

Serbia

Andorra

20

5

Corners

Serbia

Serbia

Andorra

10

1

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.51

Fair odd

1.48

Edge

2.0%

Stake

3.06u

That ticket matched the final outcome.