Postmatch editorial

Albania bent the night away from the script

The final score was Serbia 0-1 Albania. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Rey Manaj put the first mark on the match 45+1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Serbia led Total shots 15-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Serbia also shaded Shots on target 6-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Serbia the likeliest result at 48.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Serbia at 54.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 4.07 against a fair line of 3.79. That translated to an edge of 7.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Serbia

48.0%

Miss

Market result

Serbia

54.9%

Miss

BTTS

No

58.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Serbia

Serbia

Albania

15

5

Shots on target

Serbia

Serbia

Albania

6

3

Corners

Serbia

Serbia

Albania

4

2

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

4.07

Fair odd

3.79

Edge

7.4%

Stake

0.86u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.