Postmatch editorial

Senegal made the numbers look right

The final score was Senegal 2-0 Togo. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Pape Matar Sarr put the first mark on the match 35', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Togo led Shots on target 2-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Senegal also shaded Corners 5-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Senegal the likeliest result at 71.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Senegal at 80.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (63.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betsson. The market was offering 1.33 against a fair line of 1.31. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Senegal

71.0%

Hit

Market result

Senegal

80.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

63.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Togo

Senegal

Togo

2

4

Corners

Senegal

Senegal

Togo

5

2

Possession

Senegal

Senegal

Togo

63%

37%

Model edge

1

Betsson

Market odd

1.33

Fair odd

1.31

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.75u

That ticket matched the final outcome.