Postmatch editorial

Senegal made the numbers look right

The final score was Senegal 2-0 Sudan. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Kalidou Koulibaly put the first mark on the match 14', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Senegal led Shots on target 5-1. Senegal also shaded Total shots 9-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Senegal the likeliest result at 66.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Senegal at 82.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (67.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.31 against a fair line of 1.29. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Senegal

66.9%

Hit

Market result

Senegal

82.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

67.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Senegal

Senegal

Sudan

5

1

Total shots

Senegal

Senegal

Sudan

9

6

Corners

Sudan

Senegal

Sudan

4

5

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

1.31

Fair odd

1.29

Edge

1.6%

Stake

1.80u

That ticket matched the final outcome.