Postmatch editorial

Senegal made the numbers look right

The final score was Senegal 4-0 Mauritania. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Habib Diallo scored 85' for Senegal.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Senegal led Shots on target 9-3. Senegal also shaded Total shots 11-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Senegal the likeliest result at 70.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Senegal at 87.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (72.9%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Senegal

70.6%

Hit

Market result

Senegal

87.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

72.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Senegal

Senegal

Mauritania

9

3

Total shots

Senegal

Senegal

Mauritania

11

6

Possession

Senegal

Senegal

Mauritania

60%

40%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.