Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Scotland 3-1 Greece. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Greece struck first through Konstantinos Tsimikas 62', but Scotland recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Greece led Total shots 8-15, even though the scoreboard went another way. Greece also shaded Possession 33%-67%.

Before kickoff, our model made Greece the likeliest result at 50.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Greece at 38.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.9%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 3.05 against a fair line of 2.88. That translated to an edge of 5.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Greece

50.7%

Miss

Market result

Greece

38.0%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

50.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Greece

Scotland

Greece

8

15

Possession

Greece

Scotland

Greece

33%

67%

Shots on target

Scotland

Greece

3

3

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

3.05

Fair odd

2.88

Edge

5.9%

Stake

0.60u

That ticket matched the final outcome.