Postmatch editorial

Scotland bent the night away from the script

The final score was Scotland 4-2 Denmark. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

The decisive turn arrived late when Kenny McLean scored 90+8' for Scotland.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Denmark led Corners 2-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Denmark also shaded Possession 30%-70%.

Before kickoff, our model made Denmark the likeliest result at 44.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Denmark at 47.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.1%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Denmark

44.2%

Miss

Market result

Denmark

47.6%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

58.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Denmark

Scotland

Denmark

2

9

Possession

Denmark

Scotland

Denmark

30%

70%

Shots on target

Scotland

Scotland

Denmark

5

3

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.