Postmatch editorial

Scotland made the numbers look right

The final score was Scotland 2-1 Belarus. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Ché Adams put the first mark on the match 15', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Scotland led Shots on target 6-3. Belarus also shaded Total shots 12-22.

Before kickoff, our model made Scotland the likeliest result at 51.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Scotland at 89.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Unibet. The market was offering 1.22 against a fair line of 1.21. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Scotland

51.6%

Hit

Market result

Scotland

89.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Scotland

Scotland

Belarus

6

3

Total shots

Belarus

Scotland

Belarus

12

22

Possession

Scotland

Scotland

Belarus

55%

45%

Model edge

1

Unibet

Market odd

1.22

Fair odd

1.21

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.21u

That ticket matched the final outcome.