Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was SC Freiburg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Philipp Lienhart 75', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: VfL Wolfsburg led Corners 1-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. SC Freiburg also shaded Possession 63%-37%.

Before kickoff, our model made SC Freiburg the likeliest result at 59.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced SC Freiburg at 47.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.44 against a fair line of 2.33. That translated to an edge of 4.7% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

SC Freiburg

59.7%

Miss

Market result

SC Freiburg

47.6%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

60.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg

SC Freiburg

VfL Wolfsburg

1

7

Possession

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg

VfL Wolfsburg

63%

37%

Shots on target

VfL Wolfsburg

SC Freiburg

VfL Wolfsburg

3

4

Model edge

1

Mansionbet

Market odd

2.44

Fair odd

2.33

Edge

4.7%

Stake

0.77u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.