Postmatch editorial

SC Freiburg made the numbers look right

The final score was SC Freiburg 2-1 Heidenheim. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Maximilian Eggestein scored 83' for SC Freiburg.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: SC Freiburg led Shots on target 4-2. SC Freiburg also shaded Total shots 17-13.

Before kickoff, our model made SC Freiburg the likeliest result at 59.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced SC Freiburg at 60.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.7%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

SC Freiburg

59.8%

Hit

Market result

SC Freiburg

60.8%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

51.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg

Heidenheim

4

2

Total shots

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg

Heidenheim

17

13

Corners

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg

Heidenheim

5

4

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.