SC Freiburg
FC Union Berlin won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
FC Union Berlin
Postmatch editorial
FC Union Berlin bent the night away from the script
The final score was SC Freiburg 0-1 FC Union Berlin. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Woo-yeong Jeong scored 90+2' for FC Union Berlin.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: SC Freiburg led Possession 73%-27%, even though the scoreboard went another way. SC Freiburg also shaded Total shots 19-9.
Before kickoff, our model made SC Freiburg the likeliest result at 52.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced SC Freiburg at 51.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.2%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 2.23 against a fair line of 2.14. That translated to an edge of 4.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
SC Freiburg
52.9%
Market result
SC Freiburg
51.4%
BTTS
Yes
52.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
FC Union Berlin
73%
27%
Total shots
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
FC Union Berlin
19
9
Corners
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
FC Union Berlin
6
2
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
2.23
Fair odd
2.14
Edge
4.2%
Stake
0.80u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.