Postmatch editorial

The script held and FC Bayern München delivered it

The final score was SC Freiburg 2-3 FC Bayern München. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

SC Freiburg struck first through Johan Manzambi 46', but FC Bayern München recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Bayern München led Shots on target 4-9. FC Bayern München also shaded Possession 30%-70%.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 57.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.53 against a fair line of 1.50. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Bayern München

57.0%

Hit

Market result

FC Bayern München

64.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

57.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FC Bayern München

SC Freiburg

FC Bayern München

4

9

Possession

FC Bayern München

SC Freiburg

FC Bayern München

30%

70%

Total shots

FC Bayern München

SC Freiburg

FC Bayern München

13

21

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

1.53

Fair odd

1.50

Edge

2.0%

Stake

1.27u

That ticket matched the final outcome.