Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was SC Freiburg 1-1 Borussia Dortmund. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Lucas Höler 75', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: SC Freiburg led Corners 6-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. SC Freiburg also shaded Total shots 21-9.
Before kickoff, our model made SC Freiburg the likeliest result at 46.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Borussia Dortmund at 50.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (63.9%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Marathon. The market was offering 2.19 against a fair line of 2.11. That translated to an edge of 3.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
SC Freiburg
46.8%
Market result
Borussia Dortmund
50.5%
BTTS
Yes
63.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund
6
0
Total shots
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund
21
9
Shots on target
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund
6
4
Model edge
2
Marathon
Market odd
2.19
Fair odd
2.11
Edge
3.8%
Stake
0.81u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.