SC Freiburg
Game ended in draw.
3 - 3
FT
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Matthias Ginter 86', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: SC Freiburg led Shots on target 9-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. SC Freiburg also shaded Corners 5-2.
Before kickoff, our model made SC Freiburg the likeliest result at 40.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 42.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
SC Freiburg
40.9%
Market result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
42.9%
BTTS
Yes
55.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
9
5
Corners
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
5
2
Total shots
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
21
17
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.