Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Saudi Arabia 0-0 Iraq. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Neither Saudi Arabia nor Iraq found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Saudi Arabia led Shots on target 4-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Saudi Arabia also shaded Total shots 15-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Iraq the likeliest result at 37.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Saudi Arabia at 65.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.69 against a fair line of 1.65. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Iraq

37.3%

Miss

Market result

Saudi Arabia

65.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

52.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

4

1

Total shots

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

15

4

Corners

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

0

1

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

1.69

Fair odd

1.65

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.14u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.