Postmatch editorial

Sassuolo flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Sassuolo 2-1 Como. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Cristian Volpato put the first mark on the match 42', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Como led Possession 30%-70%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Sassuolo also shaded Shots on target 4-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Como the likeliest result at 47.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Como at 66.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.69 against a fair line of 1.65. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Como

47.8%

Miss

Market result

Como

66.7%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

52.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Como

Sassuolo

Como

30%

70%

Shots on target

Sassuolo

Sassuolo

Como

4

3

Corners

Como

Sassuolo

Como

5

8

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

1.69

Fair odd

1.65

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.16u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.