Postmatch editorial

Bologna settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Thijs Dallinga put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bologna led Total shots 9-16. Sassuolo also shaded Corners 7-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 45.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sassuolo at 41.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.4%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bologna

45.6%

Hit

Market result

Sassuolo

41.7%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

54.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Bologna

Sassuolo

Bologna

9

16

Corners

Sassuolo

Sassuolo

Bologna

7

4

Possession

Sassuolo

Sassuolo

Bologna

55%

45%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.