Sassuolo
Sassuolo won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
AC Milan
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Sassuolo 2-0 AC Milan. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Domenico Berardi put the first mark on the match 5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Sassuolo led Shots on target 4-1. Sassuolo also shaded Total shots 13-7.
Before kickoff, our model made AC Milan the likeliest result at 53.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced AC Milan at 58.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.7%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
AC Milan
53.8%
Market result
AC Milan
58.5%
BTTS
Yes
50.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
SassuoloSassuolo
AC Milan
4
1
Total shots
SassuoloSassuolo
AC Milan
13
7
Possession
SassuoloSassuolo
AC Milan
58%
42%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.