São Tomé and Príncipe
Tunisia won after full-time.
0 - 6
FT
Tunisia
Postmatch editorial
Tunisia made the numbers look right
The final score was São Tomé and Príncipe 0-6 Tunisia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane scored 90' for Tunisia.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Tunisia led Shots on target 4-12. Tunisia also shaded Total shots 6-16.
Before kickoff, our model made Tunisia the likeliest result at 72.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tunisia at 97.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Tunisia
72.0%
Market result
Tunisia
97.1%
BTTS
No
59.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
TunisiaSão Tomé and Príncipe
Tunisia
4
12
Total shots
TunisiaSão Tomé and Príncipe
Tunisia
6
16
Possession
TunisiaSão Tomé and Príncipe
Tunisia
34%
66%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.