São Tomé and Príncipe
São Tomé and Príncipe won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Malawi
Postmatch editorial
São Tomé and Príncipe bent the night away from the script
The final score was São Tomé and Príncipe 1-0 Malawi. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Ronaldo Lumungo put the first mark on the match 62', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Malawi led Shots on target 1-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Malawi also shaded Total shots 2-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Malawi the likeliest result at 63.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Malawi at 86.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Malawi
63.1%
Market result
Malawi
86.2%
BTTS
Yes
51.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
MalawiSão Tomé and Príncipe
Malawi
1
3
Total shots
MalawiSão Tomé and Príncipe
Malawi
2
7
Corners
MalawiSão Tomé and Príncipe
Malawi
0
8
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.