São Tomé and Príncipe
Equatorial Guinea won after full-time.
2 - 3
FT
Equatorial Guinea
Postmatch editorial
Equatorial Guinea found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was São Tomé and Príncipe 2-3 Equatorial Guinea. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
São Tomé and Príncipe struck first through Ronaldo Lumungo 8', but Equatorial Guinea recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Equatorial Guinea led Shots on target 3-8. Equatorial Guinea also shaded Corners 0-12.
Before kickoff, our model made No clear call the likeliest result at n/a, while the median bookmaker line priced Equatorial Guinea at 76.9% implied.
The model still found a small price edge on X at Williamhill. The market was offering 6.50 against a fair line of 5.92. That translated to an edge of 9.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Market result
Equatorial Guinea
76.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Equatorial GuineaSão Tomé and Príncipe
Equatorial Guinea
3
8
Corners
Equatorial GuineaSão Tomé and Príncipe
Equatorial Guinea
0
12
Total shots
Equatorial GuineaSão Tomé and Príncipe
Equatorial Guinea
6
16
Model edge
X
Williamhill
Market odd
6.50
Fair odd
5.92
Edge
9.8%
Stake
0.38u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.