Postmatch editorial

Athletico PR upset the pre-match prices

The final score was São Paulo 1-2 Athletico PR. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

São Paulo struck first through Artur 19', but Athletico PR recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: São Paulo led Possession 70%-30%, even though the scoreboard went another way. São Paulo also shaded Corners 7-3.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made São Paulo the favourite at 50.0% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

São Paulo

50.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

São Paulo

São Paulo

Athletico PR

70%

30%

Corners

São Paulo

São Paulo

Athletico PR

7

3

Total shots

São Paulo

São Paulo

Athletico PR

18

11