Postmatch editorial

Cyprus made the numbers look right

The final score was San Marino 0-4 Cyprus. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Andronikos Kakoullis scored 79' for Cyprus.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cyprus led Shots on target 0-7. Cyprus also shaded Total shots 5-18.

Before kickoff, our model made Cyprus the likeliest result at 63.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cyprus at 85.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.23 against a fair line of 1.22. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cyprus

63.6%

Hit

Market result

Cyprus

85.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

50.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Cyprus

San Marino

Cyprus

0

7

Total shots

Cyprus

San Marino

Cyprus

5

18

Possession

Cyprus

San Marino

Cyprus

29%

71%

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

1.23

Fair odd

1.22

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.09u

That ticket matched the final outcome.