San Marino
Bosnia and Herzegovina won after full-time.
0 - 6
FT
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Postmatch editorial
Bosnia and Herzegovina made the numbers look right
The final score was San Marino 0-6 Bosnia and Herzegovina. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Nihad Mujakic scored 90' for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bosnia and Herzegovina led Shots on target 1-10. Bosnia and Herzegovina also shaded Total shots 4-22.
Before kickoff, our model made Bosnia and Herzegovina the likeliest result at 61.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bosnia and Herzegovina at 90.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at Marathonbet. The market was offering 16.00 against a fair line of 13.93. That translated to an edge of 14.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Bosnia and Herzegovina
61.5%
Market result
Bosnia and Herzegovina
90.1%
BTTS
No
53.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Bosnia and HerzegovinaSan Marino
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1
10
Total shots
Bosnia and HerzegovinaSan Marino
Bosnia and Herzegovina
4
22
Corners
Bosnia and HerzegovinaSan Marino
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0
6
Model edge
X
Marathonbet
Market odd
16.00
Fair odd
13.93
Edge
14.9%
Stake
0.23u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.