Postmatch editorial

Austria made the numbers look right

The final score was San Marino 0-4 Austria. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Marko Arnautovic scored 85' for Austria.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Austria led Shots on target 2-13. Austria also shaded Total shots 8-22.

Before kickoff, our model made Austria the likeliest result at 79.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Austria at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (70.9%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Austria

79.1%

Hit

Market result

Austria

99.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

70.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Austria

San Marino

Austria

2

13

Total shots

Austria

San Marino

Austria

8

22

Possession

Austria

San Marino

Austria

33%

67%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.