Samoa
Oman won after full-time.
0 - 8
FT
New Zealand
Postmatch editorial
New Zealand made the numbers look right
The final score was Samoa 0-8 New Zealand. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Ben Waine scored 90+2' for New Zealand.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: New Zealand led Shots on target 0-16. New Zealand also shaded Total shots 1-31.
Before kickoff, our model made New Zealand the likeliest result at 66.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced New Zealand at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.6%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
New Zealand
66.6%
Market result
New Zealand
99.0%
BTTS
Yes
50.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
New ZealandSamoa
New Zealand
0
16
Total shots
New ZealandSamoa
New Zealand
1
31
Possession
New ZealandSamoa
New Zealand
18%
82%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.