Postmatch editorial

Nigeria turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Rwanda 0-2 Nigeria. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Victor Osimhen put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nigeria led Shots on target 0-3. Nigeria also shaded Total shots 0-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Nigeria the likeliest result at 35.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nigeria at 59.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 1.90 against a fair line of 1.84. That translated to an edge of 3.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Nigeria

35.9%

Hit

Market result

Nigeria

59.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

59.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Nigeria

Rwanda

Nigeria

0

3

Total shots

Nigeria

Rwanda

Nigeria

0

6

Corners

Nigeria

Rwanda

Nigeria

4

8

Model edge

2

Betfair

Market odd

1.90

Fair odd

1.84

Edge

3.3%

Stake

1.02u

That ticket matched the final outcome.