Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Rwanda 1-1 Lesotho. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Lehlohonolo Fothoane 82', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Rwanda led Shots on target 8-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Rwanda also shaded Total shots 18-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Rwanda the likeliest result at 58.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Rwanda at 66.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.9%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Williamhill. The market was offering 1.70 against a fair line of 1.66. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Rwanda

58.8%

Miss

Market result

Rwanda

66.7%

Miss

BTTS

No

56.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Rwanda

Rwanda

Lesotho

8

1

Total shots

Rwanda

Rwanda

Lesotho

18

6

Possession

Lesotho

Rwanda

Lesotho

33%

67%

Model edge

1

Williamhill

Market odd

1.70

Fair odd

1.66

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.14u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.