Postmatch editorial

Benin found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Rwanda 0-1 Benin. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Aiyegun Tosin scored 80' for Benin.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Rwanda led Shots on target 2-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Benin also shaded Corners 2-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Rwanda the likeliest result at 55.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Benin at 38.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (66.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 2.88 against a fair line of 2.73. That translated to an edge of 5.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Rwanda

55.0%

Miss

Market result

Benin

38.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

66.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Rwanda

Rwanda

Benin

2

1

Corners

Benin

Rwanda

Benin

2

4

Possession

Rwanda

Rwanda

Benin

59%

41%

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

2.88

Fair odd

2.73

Edge

5.5%

Stake

0.64u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.