Postmatch editorial

The script held and Romania delivered it

The final score was Romania 7-1 San Marino. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

San Marino struck first through Nicolas Giacopetti 2', but Romania recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Romania led Shots on target 13-1. Romania also shaded Total shots 25-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Romania the likeliest result at 78.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Romania at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.1%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Ladbrokes. The market was offering 1.10 against a fair line of 1.09. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Romania

78.3%

Hit

Market result

Romania

99.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

61.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Romania

Romania

San Marino

13

1

Total shots

Romania

Romania

San Marino

25

3

Corners

Romania

Romania

San Marino

6

0

Model edge

1

Ladbrokes

Market odd

1.10

Fair odd

1.09

Edge

0.9%

Stake

5.00u

That ticket matched the final outcome.