Postmatch editorial

The script held and Roma delivered it

The final score was Roma 3-0 Pisa. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Donyell Malen put the first mark on the match 3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Pisa led Shots on target 3-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Pisa also shaded Corners 1-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Roma the likeliest result at 69.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Roma at 73.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.41 against a fair line of 1.39. That translated to an edge of 1.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Roma

69.8%

Hit

Market result

Roma

73.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Pisa

Roma

Pisa

3

5

Corners

Pisa

Roma

Pisa

1

3

Possession

Roma

Roma

Pisa

59%

41%

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.41

Fair odd

1.39

Edge

1.4%

Stake

1.48u

That ticket matched the final outcome.