Postmatch editorial

Roma turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Roma 4-0 Fiorentina. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Gianluca Mancini put the first mark on the match 13', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Roma led Shots on target 7-1. Roma also shaded Total shots 14-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Roma the likeliest result at 53.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Roma at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.63 against a fair line of 1.59. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Roma

53.2%

Hit

Market result

Roma

64.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

55.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Roma

Roma

Fiorentina

7

1

Total shots

Roma

Roma

Fiorentina

14

4

Possession

Roma

Roma

Fiorentina

61%

39%

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

1.63

Fair odd

1.59

Edge

2.5%

Stake

1.15u

That ticket matched the final outcome.