Postmatch editorial

Roma turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Roma 3-0 Cremonese. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Niccolò Pisilli scored 86' for Roma.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Roma led Shots on target 5-0. Roma also shaded Total shots 23-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Roma the likeliest result at 67.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Roma at 75.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bwin. The market was offering 1.39 against a fair line of 1.37. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Roma

67.4%

Hit

Market result

Roma

75.8%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Roma

Roma

Cremonese

5

0

Total shots

Roma

Roma

Cremonese

23

2

Corners

Roma

Roma

Cremonese

9

1

Model edge

1

Bwin

Market odd

1.39

Fair odd

1.37

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.52u

That ticket matched the final outcome.