Postmatch editorial

Neither side managed to pull the match clear

The final score was Roma 1-1 Atalanta. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Nikola Krstović put the first mark on the match 12', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Roma led Shots on target 9-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Roma also shaded Total shots 19-8.

Before kickoff, our model made Roma the likeliest result at 50.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Roma at 40.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 3.35 against a fair line of 3.15. That translated to an edge of 6.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Roma

50.7%

Miss

Market result

Roma

40.7%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

54.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Roma

Roma

Atalanta

9

2

Total shots

Roma

Roma

Atalanta

19

8

Possession

Roma

Roma

Atalanta

53%

47%

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

3.35

Fair odd

3.15

Edge

6.3%

Stake

0.57u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.