Postmatch editorial

Republic of Ireland bent the night away from the script

The final score was Republic of Ireland 2-0 Portugal. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Troy Parrott put the first mark on the match 17', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Portugal led Possession 23%-77%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Portugal also shaded Total shots 14-27.

Before kickoff, our model made Portugal the likeliest result at 59.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Portugal at 71.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betsson. The market was offering 9.80 against a fair line of 8.74. That translated to an edge of 12.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Portugal

59.6%

Miss

Market result

Portugal

71.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

54.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Portugal

Republic of Ireland

Portugal

23%

77%

Total shots

Portugal

Republic of Ireland

Portugal

14

27

Shots on target

Portugal

Republic of Ireland

Portugal

3

5

Model edge

1

Betsson

Market odd

9.80

Fair odd

8.74

Edge

12.1%

Stake

0.29u

That ticket matched the final outcome.