Republic of Ireland
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Hungary
Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was Republic of Ireland 2-2 Hungary. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Adam Idah 90+3', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Republic of Ireland led Total shots 23-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Republic of Ireland also shaded Corners 4-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Republic of Ireland the likeliest result at 37.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Republic of Ireland at 37.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.8%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 2.68 against a fair line of 2.55. That translated to an edge of 5.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Republic of Ireland
37.2%
Market result
Republic of Ireland
37.7%
BTTS
Yes
52.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Republic of IrelandRepublic of Ireland
Hungary
23
9
Corners
Republic of IrelandRepublic of Ireland
Hungary
4
1
Possession
Republic of IrelandRepublic of Ireland
Hungary
67%
33%
Model edge
1
Marathonbet
Market odd
2.68
Fair odd
2.55
Edge
5.1%
Stake
0.68u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.