Postmatch editorial

The script held and Republic of Ireland delivered it

The final score was Republic of Ireland 1-0 Armenia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Evan Ferguson put the first mark on the match 70', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Republic of Ireland led Shots on target 6-1. Republic of Ireland also shaded Total shots 17-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Republic of Ireland the likeliest result at 55.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Republic of Ireland at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 7.90 against a fair line of 7.12. That translated to an edge of 11.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Republic of Ireland

55.2%

Hit

Market result

Republic of Ireland

64.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Republic of Ireland

Republic of Ireland

Armenia

6

1

Total shots

Republic of Ireland

Republic of Ireland

Armenia

17

4

Corners

Republic of Ireland

Republic of Ireland

Armenia

6

0

Model edge

2

Betsson

Market odd

7.90

Fair odd

7.12

Edge

11.0%

Stake

0.33u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.